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Prediction for CME (2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-25T19:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23942/-1
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME with a bulk portion predominantly to the West in STEREO A COR2 imagery. No SOHO imagery available during initial entry. Source is a filament eruption and simultaneous M6.3 flare from AR13229. An EUV wave is best seen in GOES/SUVI 284 starting at 2023-02-25T18:54Z. A post-eruptive arcade is present in most SDO/AIA wavelengths following the eruption. Likely CME arrival (shock and sheath) are seen at 2023-02-27T10:15Z, as jump in magnetic field to over 20 nT, accompanied by sharp drop in density and temperature. This signature is being discussed with LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T10:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a4b1
Ejecta settings d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrzqs
cormode: single

This prediction is based on combined simulation of CMEs: 2023-02-24T20:36Z-CME-001 and 2023-02-25T19:38Z-CME-001 for which no update notification was required; the 2-CME simulation automatically detected an arrival at Earth of CME: 2023-02-24T20:36Z-CME-001 near 2023-02-26T15:20Z but manual attribution of the second expected arrival of CME: 2023-02-25T19:38Z-CME-001 at 2023-02-27T23:00Z was required.

Lead Time: 18.50 hour(s)
Difference: -12.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-02-26T15:45Z

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